Our Prediction Record: How Accurate Are PredictThePitch Football Predictions?
Anyone can claim to be good at predicting football. We would rather show you. This page keeps a public record of every prediction our model makes for the big leagues and the Champions League, along with how each one turned out.
How the record works
- Time-stamped before kick-off. Each prediction is saved with the time it was made, and it can keep updating with fresh form until the match starts.
- Locked at kick-off. Once a match begins, the prediction is frozen. Nothing is edited afterwards.
- Graded automatically. When the official result comes in, we mark the call as correct or missed. Postponed matches are removed rather than counted.
- Three-way result. We grade home win, draw or away win, which is a tougher test than picking a winner and ignoring draws.
Our model is deliberately simple. It looks at each team’s goals scored and conceded over their last ten matches, adds a small home advantage and works out the chances of every scoreline. It is a guide for discussion, not a certainty, and football will always throw up surprises.
The record so far
| Competition | Correct | Graded | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bundesliga | 15 | 35 | 43% |
| Champions League | 9 | 17 | 53% |
| Eredivisie | 17 | 35 | 49% |
| La Liga | 20 | 39 | 51% |
| Ligue 1 | 20 | 35 | 57% |
| Premier League | 16 | 39 | 41% |
| Primeira Liga | 17 | 26 | 65% |
| Serie A | 29 | 50 | 58% |
Latest graded predictions
| Match | Model call | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SL Benfica v Alverca Primeira Liga, 2 Nov | SL Benfica (68%) | 1-0 | Correct |
| Gil Vicente v Vitória SC Primeira Liga, 2 Nov | Gil Vicente (42%) | 0-0 | Missed |
| Deportivo v Osasuna La Liga, 2 Nov | Deportivo (56%) | 2-1 | Correct |
| Newcastle v Everton Premier League, 2 Nov | Newcastle (43%) | 0-1 | Missed |
| Lorient v Brest Ligue 1, 2 Nov | Lorient (41%) | 0-2 | Missed |
| Atalanta v Parma Serie A, 2 Nov | Atalanta (57%) | 0-3 | Missed |
| Sassuolo v Fiorentina Serie A, 2 Nov | Sassuolo (50%) | 2-4 | Missed |
| Braga v Famalicão Primeira Liga, 1 Nov | Famalicão (37%) | 3-0 | Missed |
| Athletic v Real Sociedad La Liga, 1 Nov | Athletic (48%) | 2-1 | Correct |
| Juventus v Napoli Serie A, 1 Nov | Juventus (43%) | 2-0 | Correct |
| Marseille v Toulouse Ligue 1, 1 Nov | Marseille (52%) | 2-0 | Correct |
| Marítimo v Santa Clara Primeira Liga, 1 Nov | Santa Clara (53%) | 0-2 | Correct |
| Acad. Viseu v Rio Ave Primeira Liga, 1 Nov | Acad. Viseu (64%) | 2-1 | Correct |
| Elche v Valencia La Liga, 1 Nov | Elche (53%) | 0-1 | Missed |
| Lecce v Genoa Serie A, 1 Nov | Lecce (39%) | 1-2 | Missed |
| Frankfurt v HSV Bundesliga, 1 Nov | Frankfurt (51%) | 3-1 | Correct |
| Liverpool v Arsenal Premier League, 1 Nov | Liverpool (44%) | 0-1 | Missed |
| Olympique Lyon v Angers SCO Ligue 1, 1 Nov | Olympique Lyon (62%) | 2-0 | Correct |
| Paris FC v Monaco Ligue 1, 1 Nov | Paris FC (43%) | 3-1 | Correct |
| Groningen v Sparta Eredivisie, 1 Nov | Groningen (58%) | 2-3 | Missed |
Accuracy counts the three-way result (home, draw, away). Predictions lock at kick-off and are never edited afterwards.
Can the fans beat the model?
Readers vote on every big match too. Where enough fans have voted, we track how often the most popular pick was right, so you can see whether the crowd or the numbers have the better eye. Head to the big matches calendar to add your predictions for the next round of fixtures.